Monday, August 31, 2009
Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone
How Forex Works
What is Currency Trading?
Currency trading is when you buy and sell currency on the foreign exchange (or "Forex") market with the intent to make money.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Forex Made Easy For Everyone
Forex made easy is as simple as you would want it to be. The foreign exchange market is a worldwide market and according to some estimates is almost as big as thirty times the turnover of the US Equity markets.
Foreign exchange is the buying and the selling of foreign exchange in pairs of currencies. For example you buy US dollars and sell UK Sterling pounds or you sell German Marks and buy Japanese Yen. Why are currencies bought or sold? The answer is simple; Governments and Companies need foreign exchange for their purchase and payments for various commodities and services. This trade constitutes about 5% of all currency transactions, however the other 95% currency transactions are done for speculation and trade. In fact many companies will buy foreign currency when it is being traded at a lower rate to protect their financial investments. Another thing about foreign exchange market is that the rates are varying continuously and on daily basis. Therefore investors and financial managers track the forex rates and the forex market it on a daily basis.
Those who are involved in the forex trade know that almost 85% of the trading is done in only US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. This is because they are the most liquid of foreign currencies (can be easily bought and sold. In fact the US Dollar is most recognizable foreign currency even in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam etc).
Being a truly 24/7 market, the currency trading markets opens in the financial centers of Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York in that sequence. Investors and speculators alike respond to the ever-changing situations and can buy and sell simultaneously the currencies. In fact many operate in two or more currency market using arbitrage to gain profits (buying in one market and selling in another market or vice versa to take advantage of the prices and book profits).
While dealing in forex, one should have a margin account. Quite simply put if you have US$ 1,000 and have a forex margin account which leverages 100:1 then you can buy US$ 100,000 since you only need 1% of the US$100,000 or US$1,000. Therefore it means that with margin account you have US$ 100,000 worth of real purchasing power in your hand.
Since the foreign currency market is fluctuating on a continuous basis, one should be able to understand the factors that affect this currency market. This is done through Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. These two tools of trade are used in a variety of other markets such as equity markets, stock markets, mutual funds markets etc. Technical Analysis refers to reading, summarizing and analyzing data based on the data that is generated by the market. While fundamental Analysis refers to the factors, which influence the market economy, and in turn how it would affect the currency trading. Of course there are other economic and non economic factors which can suddenly affect the trading of the forex markets such as the 9/11 tragedy etc. One needs to have a shrewd acumen and a few number crunching abilities to strike gold in the forex market.
How To Stop Forex Fraud
Before you start with forex trading you must have a broker. Be careful choosing the right forex broker because this market is not regulated like the other financial markets.
About $2 trillion Dollars per day are traded on the currency market each and every day. It is bigger than any other financial market out there. The main market participants are big companies, central and commercial banks and other institutional traders.
Compared to the stock or futures exchange, there is no forex exchange market. The trades are made directly between the traders. A forex broker gives you access to this market but only to a part of it. A currency broker can make his own prices. If you would open two accounts at two different brokers then you would notice that you will get two different prices for the same buy or sell.
This system of pricing and trading opens a door for fraud and scams. There are forex brokers out there that do not play correctly. It is also allowed for FX brokers to trade against their customers.
When you choose a broker be careful with everything. Check where the money is held, if there is any form of guarantee or security. Check the spread, that means how much is the average difference of the buy and sell price in your currency. Find out for how long your broker is in the game and if the company has any references.
Verify their address and phone numbers, test out the phone support of the trading desk. Check and verify any of the brokers licenses and find out if the broker is regulated by any trusted third party company or authority.
There are some great and serious forex brokers out there which offer excellent trading platforms and support. They are not necessarily more expensive than other currency brokers because they trade more volume instead.
Investing In Forex
Sometimes it`s wise not to be the early bird when investing in forex, instead wait and see what the day will bring before you take action. The 10 A.M. rule is a great example of this concept, and is an example that protects your capital. Let`s say you want to buy a forex stock, for whatever reason; a trend play, or a market rally that you think a currently hot sector will participate in. You know that a great time to buy would be on a gap down, but the market is in rally mode and instead of gapping down, the forex stock gaps up. But buying the gap up is a bad trade. Now what do you do?
You use the 10 A.M. rule, and wait until after 10 A.M. for the right forex stock investing time to buy the stock. If the forex stock makes a new high for the day after 10 A.M., then, and only then, should you trade the stock. Of course, you will use stops to protect yourself, like you would on any trade.
Anyone who`s followed the market knows that a forex stock will often gap up early in the morning, only to suddenly sell off and reverse into negative territory. By following the 10 A.M. rule, you avoid the risk of this sudden reversal. If the forex stock does make it to a new high after 10 A.M., there is still trader interest in the forex stock, and it stands a good chance of gaining momentum and heading even higher.
Here is an example of the 10 A.M. rule on a gap up: A forex stock closes the day at $145. After hours, the company announces a two for one forex stock split. The next morning the forex stocks gaps up to open at $161. It trades as high as $166 before 10 A.M. For two hours after 10 A.M. it trades lower and doesn`t reach $166. At 2 P.M., it hits $166.50. The forex stock is now safe to buy, using the 10 A.M. rule.
Using a version of the 10 A.M. rule, you could watch for a hot sector to appear in the morning and follow the forex stocks in the sector that are up for the day. If the forex stocks are still making new highs at midday, they stand a good chance of finishing the day near their ultimate highs for the day, and could be good trading opportunities. This also applies in a down market and to stocks in forex that gap down, opening at prices lower than where they closed the previous day. In this situation, you should not short a forex stock that has gapped down unless and until it makes a new low for the day after 10 A.M.
Using the 10 A.M. rule ensures that you will never end up chasing and buying a forex stock when your chances of making a profitable trade are low. Remember, trading is all about probabilities. The more forex stock investing trades you make with a high probability of success, the more successful you will be. The 10 A.M. rule is a valuable addition to your trading plan, giving you a straightforward way to avoid making costly mistakes and to increase your number of profitable stock investing trades in forex.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Forex Trading - What do I have to know and do to trade in Forex?
To become a successful Forex Trader consider the following:
Maximize Your Tools
It is of the utmost importance to know your tools. The varius brokers offers an array of tools that are used for trading the Forex markets. Be sure to test any demo accounts offered and use the opportunity to "learn" the tool.
Risk Management
Every successful trader should know how much risk he is willing to take, and what profits should result from the trade. This is the basis of every realistic trading strategy.
Two Ways to Trade
There are two types of traders, technical and fundamental. Both have a radically different approach to making trading decisions.
The Basics of Technical Analysis
All technical analysis starts with a few basic building blocks. With these as a foundation, you can start to make sound trading decisions.
Fundamentals Everyone Should Know
All Traders should understand why economic releases, interest rates, and international trade are important to movements in the currency market.
The biggest enemy to most traders is not the market, but themselves. Study and learn all you can about Forex trading.
Forex Trading - Market Dynamics
The breadth, depth, and liquidity of the market are truly impressive. It has been estimated that the world's most active exchange rates like EURUSD and USDJPY can change up to 18,000 times during a single day.
Somewhere on the planet, financial centers are open for business, and banks and other institutions are trading the dollar and other currencies, every hour of the day and night, aside from possible minor gaps on weekends. In financial centers around the world, business hours overlap; as some centers close, others open and begin to trade.
The foreign exchange market follows the sun around the earth. Each business day arrives first in the Asia-Pacific financial centers; first Wellington, New Zealand, then Sydney, Australia, followed by Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore. A few hours later, while markets remain active in those Asian centers, trading begins in Bahrain and elsewhere in the Middle East. Later still, when it is late in the business day in Tokyo, markets in Europe open for business. Subsequently, when it is early afternoon in Europe, trading in New York and other U.S. centers starts. Finally, completing the circle, when it is middle or late afternoon in the United States, the next day has arrived in the Asia-Pacific area, the first markets there have opened, and the process begins again.
1. Spot rate
A spot transaction is a straightforward (or outright) exchange of one currency for another. The spot rate is the current market price or 'cash' rate. Spot transactions do not require immediate settlement, or payment 'on the spot'. By convention, the settlement date, or value date, is the second business day after the deal date on which the transaction is made by the two parties.
In the foreign exchange market (and essentially in all markets) there is a buying and selling price. It is important to perceive these prices as a reflection of market condition.
A market maker is expected to quote simultaneously for his customers both a price at which he is willing to buy (the bid) and a price at which he is willing to sell (the ask) standard amounts of any currency for which he is making a market.
Generally speaking the difference between the bid and ask rates reflect the level of liquidity in a certain instrument. On a normal trading day, the major currency pairs EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD are traded by a multitude of market participant every few seconds. High liquidity means that there is always a seller for your buy and a buyer for your sell at actual prices.
Every foreign exchange transaction involves two currencies. It is important to keep straight which is the base currency and which is the counter currency. The counter currency is the numerator and the base currency is the denominator. When the counter currency increases, the base currency strengthens and becomes more expensive. When the counter currency decreases, the base currency weakens and becomes cheaper. In telephone trading communications, the base currency is always stated first. For example, a quotation for USDJPY means the US dollar is the base and the yen is the counter currency. In the case of GBPUSD (usually called 'cable') the British pound is the base and the US dollar is the counter currency.
4. Quotes in terms of base currency
Traders always think in terms of how much it costs to buy or sell the base currency. When a quote of 0.9150 / 53 is given that means that a trader can buy EUR against USD at 0.9153. If he is buying EURUSD for 1'000'000 at that rate he would have USD 915'300 in exchange for his million Euro. Of course traders are not actually interested in exchanging large amounts of different currency, their main focus is to buy at a low rate and sell at higher one.
5. Basis points or 'pips'
For most currencies, bid and offer quotes are carried down to the fourth decimal place. That represents one-hundredth of one percent, or 1/10,000th of the counter currency unit, usually called a 'pip'. However, for a few currency units that are relatively small in absolute value, such as the Japanese yen, quotes may be carried down to two decimal places and a 'pip' is 1/100th of the terms currency unit. In foreign exchange, a 'pip' is the smallest amount by which a price may fluctuate in that market.
6. Euro cross & cross rates
Euro cross rates are currency pairs that involve the Euro currency versus another currency. Examples of Euro crosses are EURJPY, EURCHF and GBPEUR. Currency pairs that involve neither the Euro nor the US dollar are called cross rates. Examples of cross rates are GBPJPY and CHFJPY. Of course hundreds of cross rates exist involving exotic currency pairs but they are often plagued by low liquidity. Ever since the Euro the number of liquid cross rates have decreased and have been replaced (to a certain extent) by Euro crosses.Forex Trading - Who participate in Forex Trading?
In the last years, the foreign exchange market has expanded from one where banks would execute transactions between themselves to one in which many other kinds of financial institutions like brokers and market-makers participate including non-financial corporations, investment firms, pension funds and hedge funds.
Its' focus has broadened from servicing importers and exporters to handling the vast amounts of overseas investment and other capital flows that currently take place. Lately foreign exchange day trading has become increasingly popular and various firms offer trading facilities to the small investor.
Foreign exchange is an 'over the counter' (OTC) market, that means that there is no central exchange and clearing house where orders are matched. Geographic trading 'centers' exist around the world however and are: (in order of importance) London, New York, Tokyo, Singapore, Frankfurt, Geneva & Zurich, Paris and Hong Kong. Essentially foreign exchange deals are made between participants on the basis of trust and reputation to deliver on an agreement. In the case of banks trading with one another, they do so solely on that basis. In the retail market, customers demand a written legally accepted contract between themselves and their broker in exchange of a deposit of funds on which basis the customer may trade.
Forex Trading - Advantages
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Although the forex market is by far the largest and most liquid in the world, day traders have up to now focused on seeking profits in mainly stock and futures markets. This is mainly due to the restrictive nature of bank-offered forex trading services.
There are many advantages to trading spot foreign exchange as opposed to trading stocks and futures. Below are listed those main advantages.
1. Bid/Ask Spread rates
Spread rates have tightened dramatically in the last years. Most online forex brokers offer a spread of 5 pips on EURUSD which is the most widely traded and liquid currency pair.
In the futures market spreads can vary anywhere between 5 and 9 pips and can become even larger under illiquid market conditions (which tends to happen substantially more often in futures currencies).
2. Margins requirements
Usually a foreign exchange trading with a 1% margin is available. In layman's terms that means a trader can control a position of a value of USD 1'000'000 with a mere USD 10'000 in his account. By comparison, futures margins are not only constantly changing but are also often quite sizeable. Stocks are generally traded on a non-margined basis and when they are, it can be as restrictive as 50% or so.
3. 24 hour market
Foreign exchange market trading occurs over a 24 hour period picking up in Asia around 24:00 CET Sunday evening and coming to an end in the United States on Friday around 23:00 CET. Although ECNs (electronic communications networks) exist for stock markets and futures markets (like Globex) that supply after hours trading, liquidity is often low and prices offered can often be uncompetitive.
Futures markets contain certain constraints that limit the number and type of transactions a trader can make under certain price conditions. When the price of a certain currency rises or falls beyond a certain pre-determined daily level traders are restricted from initiating new positions and are limited only to liquidating existing positions if they so desire. This mechanism is meant to control daily price volatility but in effect since the futures currency market follows the spot market anyway, the following day the futures market may undergo what is called a 'gap' or in other words the futures price will re-adjust to the spot price the next day. In the OTC market no such trading constraints exist permitting the trader to truly implement his trading strategy to the fullest extent. Since a trader can protect his position from large unexpected price movements with stop-loss orders the high volatility in the spot market can be fully controlled.
Forex Trading - Risks inherent to Forex
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Background to
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- I want to trade myself
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Friday, July 17, 2009
FOREX vs. Futures Trading
Which to trade - Forex, Futures, Or Options on Futures?
Both futures and forex trading have their advantages and disadvantages.
Trading forex - or foreign currency pairs - gives greater leverage than outright futures trading, of up to 100:1.
This means that for every $1000 put up in margin, you can trade with up to $100,000 in currency value. If you put up $10K, you could trade with $1 Million of currency. This means that if there is a 1% move in the value of the currency pair that day, it would give you a profit/loss of $10,000, or 100% change on your investment. This would be great if you were right, but disastrous if you were wrong as you would have lost your entire trading account.
Trading futures, you usually get leverage of around 2%, so you can do twice as much with your money trading forex (losing twice as much as well as winning twice as much. Money management is important!). If you are swayed to forex because of the increased leverage, hang on a minute because you may be able to get much more leverage using options on futures...
Deep out the money options will cost little but if you are right on your prediction, you could make a vast sum in a short period of time. For example, Feb Gold is trading at 455.00 on December 3rd 2004. You expect a sharp drop in prices to trend-line support at 435. You have $100,000 to trade with. 435 Feb gold puts are priced at $500 each - quite cheap as they are deep-out-the-money. You have enough to buy 200 puts $500 x 200 = $100,000.
On Dec 10th, the market has plummeted to 435 and you exit your position by selling your 200 puts. In effect, you sold the futures at 455 and bought futures at 435, giving a profit of $20 per contract. There are 100 troy ounces per contract so you make $2000 per contract. You bought 200 contracts so you have made $400,000 in a week, or 400% on your money while the market has dropped less that 5%.
If you had done an outright futures trade, you may have had to put up $2000/contract in margin, so you could only have traded 50 contracts as opposed to the 200 using options. If you had sold 200 futures at $455 and bought at $435, you'd have made $200,000 or 200% on your investment.
For more on the pros and cons of trading futures options, see here.
Trading forex has the advantage of being commission free. The forex broker is compensated for its services through the spread between the bid/ask prices.
Spot currency trading is a worldwide inter-bank market that allows buyers to be matched with sellers instantly. Although you do not pay a commission charge to a broker to match buyer up with seller, the spread is usually larger than trading futures.
For example, trading a Japanese Yen/US Dollar pair USDJPY forex trade would have a 3 point spread worth $30. Trading a JY futures trade would more likely have a spread of 1 point worth $10 but you would also be charged the broker's commission. This could be as low as $10 in-and-out for self-directed online trading, or as much as $50 for full-service trading that may include live assistance, help and advice from the broker. You need to compare both online forex and your particular futures commission charge to see which "commission" is greater. Chances are they actually work out about the same.
Forex trading is a 24-hour market, trading 5-days a week. Opening hours follow the sun around the world from one country to another e.g.
In recent years, most futures markets also trade around the clock too, on the GLOBEX markets.
Charges on Your Account
Forex trades carry an interest charge of around 1% per year. This may sound small, but with the high leverage of forex trading, you can trade with a lot larger amount of forex than in your account.
For example, you have $50,000 to trade forex. There is 100:1 leverage allowing you to control $100,000 with $1000 margin. Therefore, with your $50,000 you can trade $5 million of currency. If you fully margined your $50K for a year and ended up breaking even on your trades, the 1% interest charge will cost you $50,000 - your entire account value!
Even trading smaller amounts, the interest charges can add up. For example, you have $100,000 in your trading account and use $30,000 in margin. Over a few weeks, some trades go your way and some do not, some positions are stopped out and a couple are left on the market. You have a profit of $3000 from all your trades, or 10% on your margin. But the interest charges could amount to perhaps $1000, or 30% of your profits.
With futures, there is no interest charged on your account or positions.
Exchange Rates
If you are located in a country other than the
For example, you are British and want to open an account trading US futures markets. You convert £50,000 British Pounds Sterling into US Dollars at an exchange rate of 1.8000 USDGBP and get $90,000.
Six months later, the dollar has fallen in value against the Pound and you could now get 1.9500 USD for every GBP.
Were you to not make any trades at all during this period, or your trades had broken even, and you then decided to convert your dollars back in Sterling, you would only get £46,154 less the spread and commission fees. You would also have received no interest on your money while it was sat in your trading account, whereas you may have got - perhaps - 5% had you left it in a UK bank account. This has devalued your money in the 6-month period.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
How to Invest in Forex Mutual Funds
- Step 1
Learn how to read a forex quote. This is a ratio of one currency to another. USD/EUR is the price of a US dollar as expressed in Euros. The currency listed first is the base currency (usually the stronger currency at the time of the quote) and is given a value of 1. The second currency is the counter currency and derives its value in relation to the base. If the USD/EUR quote is 1.21, that means 1 US Dollar has the same value as 1.21 Euros.
- Step 2
Understand the definitions of pip and spread. Prices in foreign
exchange are expressed in pips--percentage in points. The pip is the number in the fourth place from the decimal point, or 1/100th of 1 percent. If USD/EUR is 1.1300/1.1304, there is a 4-pip spread between the two currencies.
- Step 3
Learn about bid and ask. The "bid" is the selling price for the base currency and the "ask" is the price to buy the base currency. Both transactions are done simultaneously.
- Step 4
Learn about leverage and margin. Leverage is the ability to trade without having to put up the entire amount of the transaction. Margin is the minimum amount required in order to participate in a trade, usually 1 to 2 percent. The forex market allows higher leverage because major currencies are less volatile than stocks; higher leverage also allows amplification of both profit and loss. Because of this, the forex market is more volatile than the stock market.
- Step 5
Select a mutual fund. Unlike the stock market, the forex market has tiers of access. An individual investor would find it difficult to gain significant access. Furthermore, in a 24-hour market, it is difficult for individuals to keep track of investments with any degree of vigilance. Most retail investors work through specialized mutual funds. Search online for managed funds to choose from. Your choice will depend on your desired level of risk, the fund's past performance, the fee structure, and restrictions on deposits and withdrawals.
Things You'll Need:
- Computer with internet access
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Funding terror? The flip side of forex boom
About 90 per cent of the operators do not indicate the sources and purposes of foreign exchange. This could assist money laundering. / Courtesy: google pics
The huge amounts of money handled by private forex bureaus could be a threat to the country and the region if foreign exchange rules are disregarded, the Bank of Uganda has warned.
In a meeting held in Kampala by forex bureaus and money remittance operators on April 30, the executive director of bank supervision at the Bank of Uganda, Justine Bagyenda, raised the alarm on possible money laundering and financial terrorism.
She said the laid-down guidelines should be adhered to as the country awaits the enactment of the Anti Money Laundering Law.
A survey by the EastAfrican reveals that many operators are not complying with Know Your Customer requirements and procedures drafted by the central bank.
These procedures were issued to all forex bureaus and money remitters in August 2003 to assist in combating the vice in Uganda’s financial sector.
Said Ms Bagyenda: “For instance, some of you are not undertaking due diligence to ensure that customer identification details for large transactions are provided.”
She added: “We have noted that 90 per cent of the operators do not capture the sources of and the purposes of foreign exchange.
“This is very dangerous as it is a possible avenue for money laundering. You should comply with the law on declaring sources and purposes of foreign exchange, and the ‘know your customer’ measures that are crucial to turn down illegally-acquired funds and prevent possible financing terrorism.”
Foreign exchange regulations require dealers to report to the Bank of Uganda the details of any individual selling amounts in excess of $5,000.
Privately run foreign currency exchange bureaus and money remittance outlets handled 30 percent of the net foreign exchange transactions in Uganda in 2008, but the regulators are concerned by increased laxity.
The Bank of Uganda says the forex bureau and money remittance sector has remained largely buoyant, with a total of 122 forex bureaus and 75 money remittance outlets.
But a few were not following operational procedures regarding identification of clients, leaving the country open to money laundering.
Ms Bagyenda said an increase was reported in the inflows and outflows of licensed money remittances in the country that stood at the equivalent of $226.01 million in inflows and $104.20 million in outflows, at the close of December 2008.
This was a tremendous improvement compared with $99.44 million and $40.59 million recorded inflows and outflows during 2007.
Statistics from the bank show that total purchases in the forex bureaus market increased from $1.2 billion at the end of December 2007 to $1.5 billion at the end of December 2008, while total sales increased from $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion over the same period.
It is due to this performance that the Bank of Uganda continues to recognise the crucial role played by forex bureaus and money remitters as partners in deepening the financial sector and fostering macroeconomic stability and growth in the country, Ms Bagyenda said.
She added that increased risk aversion by investors and the effects of the global recession were presenting significant macroeconomic challenges to Uganda’s financial system.
If the global recession is prolonged, Uganda could face reduced export earnings, a decline in foreign direct investments and reduced remittances, which would significantly reduce the banking system liquidity and exert pressure on exchange rates and debt service capacity.
Uganda’s forex bureaus and money remitters operate under the Foreign Exchange Act of 2004 and the Foreign Exchange Remitters Act 2006.
The two Acts provide for exchange of foreign currencies in Uganda and making of international payments and transfer of foreign exchange; and for other related and incidental matters.
Ms Bagyenda promised more rigorous inspections to ensure compliance with laws through off-site and on-site surveillance of forex bureaus and money remittance sector.
In a related development, the bank’s assistant director of non-bank financial institutions, Benedict Ssekabira, said Uganda and Kenya had started harmonising the supervision of forex bureaus.
Two Bank of Uganda officials were to be in Kenya from May 4-8 for an insight into on-site and cash audit operations, he said.
Likewise, CBK officials have been in Uganda for lessons on risk-based supervision of commercial banks and financial institutions. The visits were arranged by a committee of the East African Monetary Community, which is handling the East African Monetary Union.
The East Community Monetary Committee Affairs — under the umbrella of the five governors of central banks of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi — is trying to beat the 2012 target of fast-tracking the East African Monetary Union.
Monday, July 13, 2009
The History of FOREX Trading
The origin of FOREX trading traces its history to centuries ago. Different currencies and the need to exchange them had existed since the Babylonians. They are credited with the first use of paper notes and receipts. Speculation hardly ever happened, and certainly the enormous speculative activity in the market today would have been frowned upon.
In those days, the value of goods were expressed in terms of other goods(also called as the Barter System). The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted mediums of exchange. It was important that a common base of value could be established. In some economies, items such as teeth, feathers even stones served this purpose, but soon various metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value. Trade was carried among people of Africa, Asia etc through this system.
Coins were initially minted from the preferred metal and in stable political regimes, the introduction of a paper form of governmental I.O.U. during the Middle Ages also gained acceptance. This type of I.O.U. was introduced more successfully through force than through persuasion and is now the basis of today’s modern currencies.
Before the First World war, most Central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. However, the gold exchange standard had its weaknesses of boom-bust patterns. As an economy strengthened, it would import a great deal from out of the country until it ran down its gold reserves required to support its money; as a result, the money supply would diminish, interest rates escalate and economic activity slowed to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices of commodities had hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, who would sprint into buying fury that injected the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, drive down interest rates and restore wealth into the economy.. However, for this type of gold exchange, there was not necessarily a Centrals bank need for full coverage of the government's currency reserves. This did not occur very often, however when a group mindset fostered this disastrous notion of converting back to gold in mass, panic resulted in so-called "Run on banks " The combination of a greater supply of paper money without the gold to cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. The Great Depression and the removal of the gold standard in 1931 created a serious lull in FOREX market activity. From 1931 until 1973, the FOREX market went through a series of changes. These changes greatly affected the global economies at the time and speculation in the FOREX markets during these times was little.
In order to protect local national interests, increased foreign exchange controls were introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
Near the end of World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favor of a system built on the US Dollar. International institutions such as the IMF, The World Bank and GATT were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WWII searched for a way to avoid the destabilizing monetary crises leading to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that reinstated The Gold Standard partly, fixing the USD at $35.00 per ounce of Gold and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar, initially intended to be on a permanent basis.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the 1960’s. A number of realignments held the system alive for a long time but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early 1970’s following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was not any longer suited as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The last few decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the world’s largest global market. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.
The European Economic Community introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. The quest continued in Europe for currency stability with the 1991 signing of The Maastricht treaty. This was to not only fix exchange rates but also actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2002. London was, and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance.
In Asia, the lack of sustainability of fixed foreign exchange rates has gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates in particular in South America also looking very vulnerable.
While commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have discovered a new playground. The FOREX exchange market initially worked under the central banks and the governmental institutions but later on it accommodated the various institutions, at present it also includes the dot com booms and the world wide web. The size of the FOREX market now dwarfs any other investment market. The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world. Approximately 1.9 trillion dollars are traded daily in the foreign exchange market. It is estimated that more than USD 1,200 Billion are traded every day. It can be said easily that FOREX market is a lucrative opportunity for the modern day savvy investor.
Top 10 currency traders % of overall volume, May 2008
| Rank | Name | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deutsche Bank | 21.70% |
| 2 |  UBS AG | 15.80% |
| 3 |  Barclays Capital | 9.12% |
| 4 |  Citi | 7.49% |
| 5 | Royal Bank of Scotland | 7.30% |
| 6 | JPMorgan | 4.19% |
| 7 | HSBC | 4.10% |
| 8 | Lehman Brothers | 3.58% |
| 9 | Goldman Sachs | 3.47% |
| 10 | Morgan Stanley | 2.86% |
BENEFITS OF FOREX TRADING
There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few
reasons why so many people are choosing this market as a business
opportunity:
1.LEVERAGE: In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much
larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make
extraordinary profits and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. Some
Forex firms offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin
deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies.
Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.
2.LIQUIDITY: Because the Forex Market is so large, it is also extremely liquid.
This means that with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at
will. You are never 'stuck' in a trade. You can even set the online trading
platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (limit
order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (stop order).
3.PROFIT IN BOTH 'RISING' AND 'FALLING' MARKETS: On the stock
markets, you can only make money if shares are rising, but in economic
recession and falling 'bear' markets, there is little chance of making big money.
Forex is different. One of the most exciting advantages of FX trading is the ability
to generate profits whether a currency pair is 'up' or 'down'. A trader can profit
by taking a 'long' position, (buying the currency pair at one price and selling it
later at a higher price), or a 'short' position, (selling the currency pair and buying
it back at a lower price). For example, if you think the US dollar will increase in
value vs. the Japanese Yen then you will buy Dollars and sell Yen (go long). If
you think the Yen will increase in value against the Dollar then you will sell
Dollars and buy yen (go short). As long as the trader picks the right direction, a
potential for profit always exists.
4. 24 HRS: From Sunday evening to Friday Afternoon EST the Forex market
never sleeps. This is very desirable for those who want to trade on a part-time
basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.
5. FREE 'DEMO' ACCOUNTS, NEWS, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: Most Online
Forex firms offer free 'Demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking
Forex news and charting services. These are very valuable resources for traders
who would like to hone their trading skills with 'virtual' money before opening a
live trading account.
6.'MINI' TRADING: One might think that getting started as a currency trader
would cost a lot of money. The fact is, it doesn't. Online Forex Firms now offer
'mini' trading accounts with a minimum account deposit of only $200-$500 with
no commission trading. This makes Forex much more accessible to the average
individual, without large, start-up capital.
Dollar Guru
Understand forex market.Suppose you have the data and calculated the currency correlations of the major pairs. The correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD is 0.68. This correlation coefficient means both the pairs move in the same direction 68% of the time.
Get good forex training.USD/CHF and EUR/USD have a correlation coefficient of -0.975 and is pretty close to (-1). It means both USD/CHF and EUR/USD pairs move in the opposite direction almost 97.5% of the time. It means if USD/CHF moves up, the pair EUR/USD will move down!
Learn forex news trading. You have this information about the recent correlation coefficients. It tells you how much these pairs move in the same direction or opposite direction. Suppose you trade both the currency pairs USD/CHF and EUR/USD by going long. What you will be doing by going long on both the positively correlated pairs is in fact canceling both the long positions.
If you make pips on USD/CHF pair, you will lose pips on EUR/USD pair and the two trades would effectively cancel each other. A savvy currency trader would go long on USD/CHF currency pair. At the same time he/she will go short on EUR/USD currency pair. So he/she will be shorting USD in both the trades. It is a way of diversifying the USD bearish investment.
Currency correlations can help you in making entry and exit decisions for each trade. Let’s suppose GBP/USD starts showing volatility. The pair approaches a resistance level. You plan on going long if there is a breakout.
However, you notice on the charts that the other three major currency pairs are not showing volatility and moving as much as the GBP/USD. EUR/USD is not showing volatility and moving up on the chart. USD/CHF is not showing much volatility and moving down on the chart. USD/JPY is also not showing much volatility and not moving down on the chart. This means that the volatility in GBP/USD is solely GBP driven. The move is maybe related to some news in the British economy about Bank of England raising or lowering interest rates or some big companies merging.
Now you know that the move in GBP/USD pair is Pound driven. It is not US Dollar driven. You can take advantage of this information. Ignore the GBP driven move and don’t enter into any trade. Wait for a later opportunity that involves simultaneous correlated moves of all the major pairs.
Let’s take another example. Suppose you have taken a short position on EUR/USD pair. You want to be sure whether the pair will proceed down towards your profit target. You also want to know can it go against you and cause you to exit the trade with a small loss.
Your EUR/USD is heading towards M1 level after having broken the S1 support pivot level. You should take a look at the pair EUR/GBP. You find that it has paused at its S1 support pivot level. It is showing signs of reversing to the upside.
Knowledge of currency correlations can tell you if EUR/GBP breaks through the S1 level, you are poised for a profitable trade in this type of a situation, However, you should watch the indicators and exit before taking a big loss if it reverses and heads back to the upside. You might consider trading a basket of all the major currencies as you mature in forex trading.
Online Forex Demo Trading: Know Which is the Best Forex Trading - Forex Trading Online - Blog Posts - GLOBAL FOREX
Online Forex Demo Trading: Know Which is the Best Forex Trading
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